Featured GALLERY: Climate Change Data (roll curser over pic, go to "Full Gallery")

Some especially significant climate papers / books

• Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on fish

• Cool the Earth, Save the Economy. Solving the Climate Crisis is EASY
  

• Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction

• Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstructions ... [The Hockey Stick]

• Ongoing Climate Change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions

• Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change

• Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate

• Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100

• Global phytoplankton decline over the past century

• Restoring the Quality of Our Environment (1965 global warming prediction)

• Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? (1975)

• List of 300 Science Papers

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Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current

ABSTRACT: ... We report the apparent impact of declining oxygen on midwater fishes within the OMZ of the southern ­California Current (CC). Principal component analysis ... indicates ...marked decline of the region’s mesopelagic fishes during periods of reduced oxygen...The mesopelagic fish fauna provides a vital trophodynamic link between the marine plankton and many higher predators. The decline of deepwater fish populations has ­profound implications for commercial fisheries, marine food webs and marine conservation: ­climate models predict a 20 to 40% decline in global deepwater oxygen concentrations over the coming century.

[n.b. This paper shows that global warming is leading to oxygen-dead zones in the ocean, which will increasingly reduce fish population crucial to the marine food chain]

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Cool the Earth, Save the Economy: Solving the Climate Crisis is EASY

This practical book by Dr. John and Mary Ellen Harte maintains that money can be saved and the climate crisis mitigated by the "EASY" plan, which if implemented will achieve a 75% reduction in current U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

The EASY plan has four major components:

• E = Energy efficiency
  

• A = Automotive efficiency
  

• S = Solar, wind and geothermal technology
  

• Y = You are part of the solution
  

All of the above involve available, acceptable and affordable technologies. In fact, a cost/benefits analysis comparing the EASY plan to business-as-usual, based on conservative economic assumptions (Chapter 3), shows that the EASY plan will cost $21.6 trillion, but doing nothing will cost $22.1 trillion – i.e., the U.S. will save about $0.5 trillion over the next 20 years if the US invests in the EASY plan now.

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Atmospheric Carbon Injection Linked to End-Triassic Mass Extinction
- LINK

Micha Ruhl, Nina R. Bonis, Gert-Jan Reichart, Jaap S. Sinninghe Damsté, Wolfram M. Kürschner

Science 22 July 2011:
Vol. 333 no. 6041 pp. 430-434
DOI: 10.1126/science.1204255

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Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence - LINK

Eugene R. Wahl · Caspar M. Ammann 

Climatic Change (2007) 85:33–69 DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7

Abstract: The Mann et al. (1998) Northern Hemisphere annual temperature reconstruction over 1400–1980 is examined in light of recent criticisms concerning the nature and processing of included climate proxy data...the Mann et al. reconstruction is robust against the proxy-based criticisms addressed. In particular, re- constructed hemispheric temperatures are demonstrated to be largely unaffected by the use or non-use of PCs [principal components] to summarize proxy evidence from the data-rich North American region. When proxy PCs are employed, neither the time period used to “center” the data before PC calculation nor the way the PC calculations are performed significantly affects the results, as long as the full extent of the climate information actually in the proxy data is represented by the PC time series...both the 20th century upward trend and high late-20th century hemispheric surface temperatures are anomalous.

[nb: This paper shows that contrarian attacks on the "Hockey Stick" are false. In particular, the mathematical procedure of "principal components" was grossly misapplied by contrarians. Actually, the fact that recent global warming is due to humans, is independent of the Hockey Stick.]

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Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions - LINK

Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Kirsten Zickfeld, Shawn J. Marshall & William J. Merryfield

Journal name: Nature Geoscience

Year published: (2011)

DOI: doi:10.1038/ngeo1047

... Here we use simulations with the Canadian Earth System Model to show that ongoing regional changes in temperature and precipitation are significant, following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions in 2100, despite almost constant global mean temperatures. Moreover, our projections show warming at intermediate depths in the Southern Ocean that is many times larger by the year 3000 than that realized in 2100. We suggest that a warming of the intermediate-depth ocean around Antarctica at the scale simulated for the year 3000 could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would be associated with a rise in sea level of several metres. 

[nb: This paper demonstrates that sea level rise by 3000 may be several metres even if CO2 emissions are zero after 2100. This rise will occur sooner if CO2 emissions are not zero.]

See the press release HERE.

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Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change- LINK

Wolfram Schlenker a,1 and Michael J. Roberts b
a Department of Economics and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027; and b Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695

www.pnas.org cgi doi 10.1073 pnas.0906865106

This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/ 0906865106/DCSupplemental .

... We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful...Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30 – 46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.

[nb: This paper exibits again that there is no safe haven from global warming. The U.S. will suffer huge hits to major food production under "business as usual"]

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Probabilistic projections for 21st century European climate - LINK

G. R. Harris, M. Collins, D. M. H. Sexton, J. M. Murphy, and B. B. B. Booth
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2009-2020, 2010
www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/2009/2010/
doi:10.5194/nhess-10-2009-2010

Abstract. We present joint probability distribution functions of future seasonal-mean changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for the European region for the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The probabilistic projections quantify uncertainties in the leading physical, chemical and biological feedbacks and combine information from perturbed physics ensembles, multi-model ensembles and observations.

[nb: This takes care of the complaint that there are uncertainties in the models - the distribution of future temperatures in Europe is given for the A1B scenario of human behavior, basically including ALL model uncertainties, and the temperature always goes UP]

Full Article (PDF, 1249 KB)   

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Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100 - LINK

D. O. Breecker et al; PNAS January 12, 2010 vol. 107 no. 2 576-580

...We report that greenhouse [CO₂]_atm have been significantly overestimated because previously assumed soil CO₂ concentrations during carbonate formation are too high...past greenhouse climates were accompanied by concentrations similar to those projected for A.D. 2100.

[nb: This indicates that we may be producing huge greenhouse effects by 2100.]

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Global phytoplankton decline over the past century- LINK

D. G. Boyce et al; Nature Volume: 466, Pages: 591–596, Date published: (29 July 2010), doi:10.1038/nature09268

Editor's summary: ...Marine phytoplankton have a crucial role in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, and form the basis of marine ecosystems...What emerges from the records is a century of decline of global phytoplankton biomass.

Abstract: ...We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of ~1% of the global median per year...long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century; this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation and fisheries.

See also HERE for interview statements with the authors.

[nb: Phytoplankton is the base of the entire ocean food chain.]

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Restoring the Quality of Our Environment (1965 global warming prediction) - LINK

President's Science Advisory Council, 1965 [the year 1965 is NOT a mistake]

Appendix: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

"Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment... By the year 2000 the increase in atmospheric CO2 will be close to 25%. This may be sufficient to produce measurable and perhaps marked changes in climate, and will almost certainly cause significant changes in the temperature and other properties of the stratosphere...The climate changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings..."

[nb: The idea of global warming existed as far back as 1965]

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Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming? (1975) LINK
Paper from 1975

Author(s): Wallace S. Broecker
Source: Science, New Series, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460-463
Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1740491

Abstract. If man-made dust is unimportant as a major cause of climatic change, then a
strong case can be made that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give
way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide. By analogy with similar events
in the past, the natural climatic cooling which, since 1940, has more than compensated
for the carbon dioxide effect, will soon bottom out. Once this happens, the exponential
rise in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content will tend to become a significant factor
and by early in the next century will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond
the limits experienced during the last 1000 years.

HERE is a review by the professional climate science website, www.RealClimate.org

[nb: This 1975 article predicts and is the first to use the term "global warming"]

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List of 300 Science Papers

HERE is a list of 300 science papers relevant to global warming and environmental concern from MothIncarnate.

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