The temperature is an output of the models, and is not the result of a "fit" to parameters. As shown in the graphics below, the climate models have been successfully backtested against the last 100 years of temperature data (black lines) on a global level and at a continental level. The output of the models including all effects (anthropogenic/human and natural) are shown in red, which follow the data including recent global warming in the last 30 years. Natural effects only, in blue, are NOT sufficient to produce agreement with the data, especially in the last 30 years. Model uncertainties are exhibited by the bands. For all the supporting details, see the report.
Below is the graphic for the model forecasts for the average global temperature over the next 100 years. Forecasts require scenarios. A scenario represents a set of assumptions of human behavior in the future. All the forecasts predict increasing global temperature trends, depending on the scenario: rapidly increasing temperatures if "business as usual" (A2 red), less rapidly increasing temperatures if action is taken against global warming (B1 blue, A1B green). For each scenario, there are uncertainties in model behaviors, shown in the vertical "error bars" (gray) on the right. The baseline (orange) is irrelevant since it assumes no increase in greenhouse gases.
Note that the graph is in Centigrade (one degree C = 1.8 degrees F).
New Scientific Paper Rebuts Contrarian Cloud Claims
The Contrarians? Full article with referencesLast Updated on 2017-01-16 08:14:16
AKA climate science deniers or climate "faux" skeptics spread disinformation about climate and try to prevent responsible climate risk management. Information for this rather comprehensive article is drawn from the many sources and links in the text.
Who are the contrarians?
What is the contrarian Agenda?
What do contrarians Say about global warming? [The "Four Fallacy Trenches"]
What about Real Scientific Skepticism and contrarians?
What are some Contrarian Tactics and Fallacies?
What about "fringe" contrarian ideas?
Aren't there some contrarians with credentials who disproved mainstream climate science?
ANSWER = NO
The Tobacco Analogy
What do contrarians misunderstand about climate Risk Management?
or WHY CONTRARIANS ARE CLIMATE RISK... More »
Michael Mann - Video on Science and DenialLast Updated on 2014-10-07 16:02:04Michael Mann's AGU Chapman Conference talk (2013)
"The Battle to Communicate Climate Change: Lessons from the Front Lines"
Talk (2014): The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
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Quick one-liner rebuttals to contrarian claimsLast Updated on 2014-02-15 19:58:49
Here is a list of quick one-line rebuttals to over 100 fallacious claims by contrarians/skeptics on the popular Skeptical Science website. They rebuttals are not intended to be complete, but simply to enable the respondent to "bat the ball back over the net" in an informal encounter with someone quoting a contrarian claim. As described HERE, most of these one-liners were written by Dr. Jan Dash, Chair of the UU-UNO Climate Initiative, with some editing by John Cook, author of Skeptical Science. Details on the science at Skeptical Science are obtained by clicking on the one-line responses.
In THIS document of some historical interest (online HERE), the first line in a response labeled JWD is the one-liner summarizing the science by Jan Dash. The next lines labeled JC are the summary responses by John Cook, which he... More »
Global Warming has NOT stoppedLast Updated on 2014-02-03 10:33:46GLOBAL WARMING HAS NOT STOPPED!
The fallacy "global warming has stopped" starts with a cherry-picked unusually high surface atmosphere temperature point in 1998 that resulted from a huge "El Niño", which basically transferred a lot of heat out of the ocean to the atmosphere. Following 1998, La Niña dominated, which transferred heat from the atmosphere into the ocean (and lately into the deep ocean). Looking only at the atmosphere and neglecting the heat transfer in and out of the ocean leads to the fallacy. The total warming of the planet (ocean + atmosphere) has been trending upwards. If the El Niño/La Niña noise is subtracted out, or if the Arctic region is included, the global warming trend in the surface atmosphere is clear (as shown below). The scientific consensus is that with careful analysis there has been no pause in global... More »
Climate Science Rapid Response TeamLast Updated on 2014-02-01 19:13:40Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT)
The Climate Science Rapid Response Team or CSRRT is a match-making service to connect climate scientists with lawmakers and the media. The group is committed to providing rapid, high-quality information to media and government officials.
Climate Science Rapid Response team member scientists are chosen to cover a wide array of topics related to Climate Science. They have been selected based upon their publications in professional peer-reviewed scientific journals.
There is a wide gap between what scientists know about climate change and what the public knows. The scientists of the Climate Science Rapid Response Team understand that better communication can narrow this gap. The media is in the best position to deliver accurate science information to the general public and to our elected leaders but only when they have access to that... More »
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